The childlike anticipation of opening day reminds me of the countdown to Christmas morning as a kid.  The day literally can not arrive fast enough.  I approach the season bright-eyed and optimistic every year, but 2007 feels especially promising.  Its felt like like last saeason was going to to be our gold-medal year but after a flawless routine on the parallel bars, we botched the dismount.  Having made only minimal changes, we approach the new season with a new, hardened resolve to make-good.  If the bullpen holds up, and one or two “ifs” fall into place, I can easily see us turning in a gold-medal performance this year...…and nailing the dismount.

 

The “If” factor

Last year, till Adam Wainright crushed my autumn with his un-hittable curve balls in game 7, all the “if’s” had seemingly fallen into place.  Omar and Willie could do no wrong and all the things that had to happen, did:

  • Jose Valentin shined, giving us defense and clutch hitting  where once there was none
  • Paul LoDuca was indeed the right choice of catchers, despite names like Hernandez and Molina floating around in the winter of ‘05
  • The arms held up and it seemed like a bottomless well from which to draw water.  Every time someone went down, Pedro, Bannister, Zambrano, Sanchez, there was an arm waiting and ready to do the job.
  • Beltran got comfortable and played like a star
  • The bullpen was all but flawless:
    • Darren Oliver was perfection as the long reliever – doing everything that was asked of him.  And then some.
    • Chad Bradford was like a wet blanket, snuffing out dangerous, nasty, combustible situations time and time again.   Never have I trusted someone more to get out of a 1st and 3rd, nobody-out situation.  The Submariner did not diappoint.
    • Pedro Feliciano was virtually untouchable
    • Duaner was a monster, when he was around.  More on him later
    • Wagner, despite looking hittable and un-Wagneresque, quietly saved 40 games
    • Heilman was the MVP of the pen.  The disgruntled starter-turned reliever was incredible, stepping into Sanchez’ huge shoes and making the league forget that he was the 2nd choice for the job.  I respect Randolph’s usage of his staff, but I really think Heilman would be a 15-20 game winner for the next 8 years if given the ball every fifth day

This year presents us with a whole new list of ifs, but then again when are there not.  So, moving along, in no particular order, here is my stream of consciousness about the 2007 campaign:

 

 

Anything we get is bonus...

I can’t wrap my hands around how every one looks at El Duque as the Mets second starter.  I love watching the guy but I will be shocked and awed if he makes it to the All Star game in one piece.  To expect him to be healthy, much less to produce like a number two guy, seems very optimistic and kinda naïve to me.  I have relatively low expectations from Ol’ El’ Duque so anything he does to prove me wrong is gravy.  By the way, count Duaner Sanchez on this list as well.  And wait, Pedro too.  I will love it if Sanchez or Pedro come back in the fall but I am planning on a 2007 where they likely don’t factor in. 

 

 

We have a bad-ass lineup 

I grew up with guys like Richie Hebner and Willie Montanez batting cleanup.  When I see a lineup card with Reyes, Wright, Beltran, Delgado, Alou and LoDuca, I get a stiffie.

 

 

We play a 6 inning game

As I wrote ad nauseum last year, when a powerful offense usually stakes you to a lead after 6 innings, and you can hand the ball to a bullpen with guys like Heilman, Feliciano, Schoeneweis and Wagner, you are going to win a lot of games.  The bats and the pen mean the starters don’t have to be perfect.  They can just go up there and pitch.  We never used to have either…now we have both.

 

 

Monstrous years waiting to happen

I am giddy that the heart of the order, and really of the team Beltran, Wright and Reyes are locked up through 2028 or something. 

 

In 2005, Jose Reyes swung at every pitch thrown at him.  I think he swung at the ceremonial first pitch in Philadelphia.  After walking just 27 times in 2005, he almost doubled that last year.  With this new found discipline came better pitches to hit, and with better pitches to hit came insane numbers for a 24 year old, like 194 hits, 17 triples and 64 stolen bases. Cue the music - Jose, Jose, Jose, Jose……

 

David Wright should absolutely shine as a number 2 hitter.  I’ll grant you he won’t come up with as many runners on, but he will get much better pitches to hit with Beltran, Delgado, Alou and LoDuca hitting behind him.  He also will be presented with gaping infield holes to hit into when Reyes is running on the pitch.  Wright hits to the opposite field effortlessly.  Who better to move Jose over than his pal David Wright?  My first reaction was to leave him in the six hole.  Upon some more thought, I like him batting second.  Ballsy, unconventional, excellent call by Randolph.

 

Beltran put up career numbers in Homers and RBIs last year but there is no reason to think those are going to decline by more than a little.  I think it’s reasonable to think he will improve on his 275 average and 18 stolen bases.  As he is no longer is “the high priced guy that didn’t perform”, I think he’s gonna have another strong year.  And, as good as he will look on paper when the year ends, there is no stat for how graceful and smooth he looks gliding around center field.  That’s something you can’t teach.

 

 

 

The best 3-13 Pitcher in baseball

While I think we can expect good things from Glavine and Maine, I think Oliver Perez is going to be the ace of the staff this year.  He came to us as the faded-phenom with the erratic stuff and the lack of control.  With a little tinkering from Rick Peterson, the word is that he has developed a consistent delivery and with that I think we are going to see some electric stuff from Ollie this year.  He’s gonna be the guy you hope is pitching when you have tickets to the game.

 

 

 

For Crying Out Loud, Give the kid a chance!

Who says "For Crying out loud" anymore?  What am I, 60?  Anyone who read my blog last year (and you both know who you are) knows I was very opposed to the outcry to trade Milledge.  If there was one trade rumor last year that didn’t involve Milledge, I didn’t read it.

 

After coming up to the bigs, with less minor league at bats than Reyes or Wright mind you, he had moments when he looked overwhelmed.  Instead of looking at him for what he was, a 22 year old kid up for a month or two and just trying to cut his teeth in the majors, he gets condemned as a failed-experiment.  He had 166 at bats for Gods sake.  Give the kid a break.  I think Milledge has some real serious skills.  I know he looked awkward at Fenway last year, but he can cover a ton of ground in the outfield.  He’s also got a cannon for an arm, incredible bat speed and, like Gary Sheffield, a “hostile” swing and like Sheffield, when he is on, he just tattoos the ball.  There is a reason every GM asked for him last fall…he is going to be a real ballplayer.  Keith Hernandez put it really well early in spring training when he said “Lastings Milledge is more comfortable in his skin this year.  He needed last year to become a man.”

  

 

What do Omar Minaya and a good Monopoly player have in common?

When you were a kid, there was always someone in the Monopoly game that tucked away some of those nice, orange $500 dollar bills tucked away under the board.  There were also a lot of kids who stole the $500s, but I am not referring to them here.  Anyway, as the game wore on, you lost sight of the secret stash they had tucked away.  A few bad rolls of the dice and you thought they were dry, spent.  Then they’d reach under the board and pull out their private stash – resources your forgot they had.  Omar has a monster, Guillermo Mota tucked under the board till July and on a lesser scale arms like Juan Padilla and Dave Williams who can present themselves as options at some point in the season.   There are also wild cards like Pedro and Duaner who, if they come back, will be a shot in the arm.  Did Omar fire 5 shots or six?  In all the excitement I lost track…..I say, when just when you think Omar’ has shot his load, he surprises you with one more bullet in the chamber.

 

Random Thoughts

  • Bourogs could be a diamond in the rough, but Right now he just scares me.  I hope the Jacket can convince him to throw 94 with control instead of heaving up 97 mph meatballs.  It helped some Koufax guy back in '62, maybe it will work here.
  • I am reserving judgment on Moises Alou.  He looks really overmatched at the plate in Spring Training.  I know that historically he has had terrible springs and then turns it on once the season starts and I am hoping that this is what we have here (this is where you insert your favorite "What we have here..." quote as in "what we have here, is a failure...to communicate"  or Alvie Singer's "What we have here...is  a dead shark").  Anyway,  I have yet to see Alou hit the ball hard in a Met uni.  I hope we didn't replace Cliff Floyd with a dead shark.  I think not.
  • Even if Shawn Green is through, and the jury is out on him as well, we still have the best 4th outfielder in baseball in Endy Chavez, Lastings Milledge and Ben Johnson waiting for their audition in RF and the tandem of Carlos Gomez/Fernando Martinez waiting in the wings.  It’s good to be the king.
  • Am I missing something when it comes to Damien Easley?  I don’t much care if you can play all infield positions if you hit .240, .238 and .217 in the last 3 seasons.  I’d rather let A-Hern get the practice if I don’t care about offense.  Also, I Hernandez defense, he tears it up in winter ball.  Perhaps he’s got some pop that is just a few tweaks away from blossoming.
  • I haven’t seen Sele but I like Chan Ho as a middle reliever.  Aside from a long homer he gave up last game, he had excellent command and a nasty breaking ball.  I can see him stepping up, as many have done in the past, under Rick Peterson’s tutelage.
  • Bob Murphy, I Miss you.  I hope its a beautiful day for baseball wherever you are.

  

So, with these random thoughts committed to paper, I feel ready to face the season.  Most of my predictions have been predictably optimistic but hey, it’s Thursday night and Christmas morning is just 3 days away.